Schuman AnalyticsMath wins football games.
The leading-edge touch football analytics firm in the country. We measure what the box score can't.
Numbers don't have feelings. Computers don't have feelings.ISRAEL SCHUMAN, IN 7 PERCENT: A HURRICANES STORY
Why the box score isn't enough.
Completion percentage tells you how often a pass was caught. It doesn't tell you whether the offense moved, who it moved against, or whether the drive ended in the end zone. So we built better numbers.
What actually drives offense
Standardized regression on team offensive efficiency, Seasons 7 and 8
One standard deviation of QBR is worth more than twice as much offensive efficiency as one standard deviation of completion percentage.
SOURCE: SCHUMAN ANALYTICS HQ · STAT TESTING
Adjust for who you played.
Every team gets an expected number based on its schedule. We rate teams by how far they beat it.
Blend plays and drives.
Yards per play shows efficiency. Drive success rate shows finishing. Our efficiency ratings average the two.
Put every season on one scale.
Stats marked with a + are scaled so 100 is average. Every 10 points is about one standard deviation, so a 2021 season compares to a 2025 season.
Weight defense by role.
A CB1 is worth more than a CB2, and both more than a pass rusher. Our defensive rating weights them 1.45, 1.15 and 1.
The track record.
Our Power rating is offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency, adjusted for schedule. Here's every team, ranked by Power, every season since we started modeling.
HIGHLIGHT = THAT SEASON'S CHAMPION · DOTS IN POWER ORDER, #1 FIRST · SOURCE: TEAM EFFICIENCY, 2019–2025
Champions finished top three in Power. Every season since Season 3.
Champions ranked first. Hi-Steppers in Season 4, Criminoles in Season 5, Kraken in Season 9.
Hi-Steppers' total Power since 2019, the best of any franchise. The Hurricanes rank last, at −76.3, and still won Season 8.
Team efficiency, by season.
Offense on one axis, defense on the other. For offense, higher is better. For defense, lower is better. Teams in the top right did both.
Power rankings
O-eff and D-eff scaled to 100 · Power = O − D
| # | Team | O-eff | D-eff | Power |
|---|
Offense vs. defense
Dashed lines mark league average (100)
Projections.
Before Season 9, we rated every roster, adjusted players whose skills lean to one side of the ball, and simulated the season 200,000 times using the real schedule.
Season 9 championship odds
Preseason · 200,000 simulations
Our top two picks met in the final. The Kraken won it.
SOURCE: POWER RATINGS 2025
Our lowest projection in TFL history: the Season 8 Hurricanes. People said we hated the Hurricanes. We don't hate anybody.
They won the title. By the end of the season, our efficiency model had them second in Power. Watch 7 Percent
Season 9 MVP watchlist
Projected value = expected offensive value + expected defensive value
THE NUMBERS DON'T HAVE FEELINGS. NEITHER DO WE.
Best seasons, by the numbers.
The best single seasons since Season 5 by our player ratings, plus one team stat. For QBR+, WR+ and wDef, 100 is average, so those bars start at 100 and show how far above average each season was.
QBR+
Quarterback rating, scaled to each season
WR+
Receiver rating, scaled · min. 10 routes
wDef Rating
Season 9 · weighted by position
Yards per route run
Receiving yards ÷ routes · min. 10 routes
Elusiveness
Yards after contact and rushing, per play
Explosive drives
Season 8 · TD drives under 4 plays, share of all drives
The glossary.
Every stat we track, in plain words. Open one for the formula. We call that part "for nerds."